Market Report 23rd October 2026
This week's grain market report from Simon Thomson at GrainCo, written on Friday 23 October 2026.
Summary
Futures fell sharply this week as Russia/Ukraine peace talks showed public signs of momentum. The recent theme of stagnant buying has also contributed to the sell-off.
Key points
Liffe Nov 26 wheat at £194.00 (−£11.00) at 11am on 23 October, around £25–30/t below its £221 high.
Russia and Ukraine have agreed in principle to three-way talks with the US, resuming on 10 November.
US wheat sales for the season are the lowest on record, with buyers still trading hand to mouth.
AHDB puts the UK wheat surplus at 859,000 tonnes from a 12.074mmt crop; a normal 13–14mmt crop next harvest would imply big stocks.
Black Sea shipping remains restricted, with Russia exporting at around 60% of normal.
Outlook
With UK markets still around £15/t up since the Black Sea became restricted, good Southern Hemisphere crops on the way and peace talks scheduled, it is difficult to say with confidence there is no further downside.
Talks do not guarantee outcomes, and whether the trade has gone low enough for now is the unknowable question. Clearly, the Russia/Ukraine talks in mid-November will be a major focus for grains, whatever your bias.
The full report, including the futures snapshot and Simon's view on the UK position and Southern Hemisphere crops, is on the GrainCo website.
This commentary is for general information only and is not advice to buy or sell. Prices are indicative and can move quickly.
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