December 2017 Update

Market Review 20th December 2017

US wheat markets fall sharply to make new contract lows once more, as Global supplies weigh heavy.  ABARES place Australian wheat production at 20.3mmt (USDA 21.5mmt). Stats Canada place wheat production at 30mmt (circa 2mmt above trade estimates). USDA estimate currently 27mmt. US wheat exports circa 7% down on last year, whilst EU exports are down around 22%, as Black Sea supplies continue to dominate. US funds estimated net short 203k corn, 145k wheat. IKAR raise Russian

US/EU markets make new contract lows before consolidating late in the week, driven by fund short covering and US/AUS weather worries.  DEFRA suggest UK wheat surplus of 1.048mmt, down 35% on the previous year. Exporting this volume may represent a challenge, however, failing a decline in values - with UK wheat expensive relative to other origins. UK domestic consumption forecasts also under review in light of Vivergo’ downtime. AHDB Early Bird plantings survey suggests a 9%