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US wheat markets fall sharply to make new contract lows once more, as Global supplies weigh heavy. ABARES place Australian wheat production at 20.3mmt (USDA 21.5mmt). Stats Canada place wheat production at 30mmt (circa 2mmt above trade estimates). USDA estimate currently 27mmt. US wheat exports circa 7% down on last year, whilst EU exports are down around 22%, as Black Sea supplies continue to dominate. US funds estimated net short 203k corn, 145k wheat. IKAR raise Russian wheat export estimate from 34mmt to 35.3mmt for the season (Russia report a record month for grain shipments in November). Sovecon raise Russian wheat crop estimate to 84.2mmt (USDA 83mmt). Sterling fluctuates this week
US/EU markets make new contract lows before consolidating late in the week, driven by fund short covering and US/AUS weather worries. DEFRA suggest UK wheat surplus of 1.048mmt, down 35% on the previous year. Exporting this volume may represent a challenge, however, failing a decline in values - with UK wheat expensive relative to other origins. UK domestic consumption forecasts also under review in light of Vivergo’ downtime. AHDB Early Bird plantings survey suggests a 9% drop in the UK’s winter barley area and a 2% drop in the all wheat area. Spring barley area forecast up 3%. Sterling consolidates above recent lows, as agreement around the Brexit ‘divorce Bill’ appears to have moved cl