Markets bounce this week following the recent sell-off. Easing of US/China trade tensions combined with resumed new crop supply concerns, act as catalysts. US/China announce intention to put trade tariffs on hold – news supportive to US corn/soybeans markets with increased imports of both to China reportedly being discussed. US funds estimated net short 17.1k wheat, long 228.8k (corn) 71.5k (soybeans). SAFRAS estimate Brazil’s total corn crop for 2018 at 79mmt, down from 88.9
Markets fall this week as neutral USDA data and improving weather
outlooks for US/EU/FSU help drive the sell-off.
USDA: US 2018/19 all wheat production placed at 49.56mmt, up 2.2mmt from the April report
(above trade est. of 48.2mmt). HRW production estimated 17.6mmt – down 14% y/o/y. 2018/19 World wheat ending stocks (subtracting China and India, who typically do not
participate in wheat trading) estimated at 115.7mmt – over a 6 year low. USDA lower 2018/19 Global corn
Markets rally sharply on the week as risk premium is built for challenging crop conditions in parts of US, SA and Black Sea. US weekly exports reported at 1.9mmt for corn, well above market expectations. Wheat underwhelmed with just 328k reported (450k/week required to meet current USDA targets). US funds estimated net short 52.8k (wheat), long 210.9k (corn) 124.3k (soybeans). Saudi Arabia buys 545tmt wheat – believed to be German/Baltic origin. Iraq also announces a tender f
Trade closes higher on the week, as markets add further risk premium for potential wheat/corn supply issues for next season. US HRW/Corn Belt weather uncertainty acts as the main catalyst. Stats Canada estimate 2018/19 wheat area at 25.3m/a (trade est. 23.3m/a). Perception that wheat will be planted at the expense of soybeans/canola. Algeria buys 420k French wheat. Russian FOB values stabilise at circa $211 following a sharp drop earlier in the week. US funds estimated net sh