Market Report 9th October 2026
This week's grain market report from Simon Thomson at GrainCo, written on Friday 9 October.
Summary
Markets are treading water inside the recent range. Continued Black Sea shipping restrictions caused by the fighting justify a risk premium, but until importers around the world step up and buy, there is a limit to how far the rally can run. Geopolitics and export flows are setting the agenda, with few weather or crop stories to talk about at the moment.
Key points
Liffe Nov 26 wheat at £208.25 (+£2.00) at 11am on 9 October.
Russian wheat exports July–September down to 7mmt from 11.3mmt a year earlier, with winter logistics a growing concern.
Around 10mmt less import demand from North Africa and the Middle East is offsetting lost Black Sea supply.
Near-record Russian and Ukrainian stocks leave new-crop wheat exposed if shipping normalises.
Outlook
New day, same story for wheat. Black Sea restrictions have lifted the market £20–30/t from previous levels, but someone has to keep buying for it to go higher. The premium may already price in Russia and Ukraine exporting at around 60% of capacity, set against weaker-than-normal import demand this season.
Barring dramatic Black Sea developments, expect the recent range to hold.
The full report, including the futures snapshot and Simon's view on demand and new-crop risk, is on the GrainCo website.
This commentary is for general information only and is not advice to buy or sell. Prices are indicative and can move quickly.
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