The last eight weeks has seen a great deal of change on all fronts; crops have progressed rapidly through the growth stages and harvest is starting to feel just around the corner. Likewise prices have also moved significantly since the end of April, providing some comfort to those whose crops have suffered from the recent dry weather. Old crop wheat prices have plateaued recently around £165/t for July, however with few farm stocks available and new crop wheat still weeks away, you would certainly not rule out any shorts within the market having to pay up substantially for any sizeable tonnages of wheat. As is always the case at this stage of the season, most growers may only be left with a

Markets close mixed as weather/politics continue to shape direction and traders start to turn attention towards USDA stocks/acreage data, due for release Friday. Russia’s Ag Minister suggests the country could harvest ‘up to’ 100mmt of grain this harvest. Private analysts Sovencon’s latest report suggested 119.6mmt, so perhaps suggests further downgrades in production may be forthcoming. US weekly export sales disappointed, with 506tmt reported for corn and 462tmt for wheat. Despite the poor sales of corn, exports to date are still in line to meet current USDA targets. US wheat remains uncompetitive globally, as it has all season. US/China trade dispute continues to draw trade focus, with th

Markets down sharply on the week as supportive USDA data was quickly overlooked as attention returned to politics/weather. USDA headlines: Russian wheat crop est. reduced by 3.5mmt to 68.5mmt, below market expectations (85mmt this season). Decline is believed to be based on a reduction in area due to poor spring planting weather. Leaves potential for deeper cuts if yields deemed to be below average. Ukrainian wheat production left unchanged at 26.5mmt in spite of the recent drought. US 17/18 corn beginning stocks reduced by 2.04mmt to 53.4mmt due to an increased export forecast. Ending stocks were reduced to 40.07mmt (trade est. 42.1mmt). Global 2018 corn production placed at 1052.42mmt, dow

Markets mixed this week as Black Sea/US weather continue to occupy much of the trade focus. Private forecaster’s cut Russian wheat crop estimates. Sovecon est. down 3.9mmt to 73.1mmt. IKAR est. down 2mmt to 71.5mmt. Russian Grain Union place production at 68- 69mmt. If correct, would amount to a 21% decline on this season’s 85mmt produced. Ukrainian winter wheat yields estimated down 15-30% according to the state hydro meteorological centre as a result of prolonged dry weather. Ukraine’s Ag council have also suggested up to 50% of the grain crop could be lost if conditions don’t improve. German Farm Co-Op Association suggest wheat production will be circa 22.89mmt, down 6.5% on last year. Pr

Spring drilling has finally been completed, with all but the heaviest ground now in crop. It remains to be seen how these late-drilled spring cereal crops fare (especially those planted into less than ideal seed beds); if the weather is sympathetic, they should be pretty reasonable – but that is a fairly significant ‘If’! The increasingly tight supply of old crop wheat is beginning to be reflected in values, with June’18 wheat worth anywhere between £162-£164/t. Over the last month wheat for immediate movement was almost trading at a premium for (??) movement in June – reflecting the high demand for feed wheat in the north. Going forward, it is hard to see old crop values weakening greatly;

Markets ease this week as US fund liquidation drives selling. Renewed concerns around US/China trade talks, improved US weather outlook and month end trading, all act as catalysts. US corn conditions reported at a 5 year high of 79% g/e for this time of year, surprising the trade and triggering a sell-off. EU Commission lower their 2018 wheat crop estimate by 1.2mmt to 140.3mmt. Exports left unchanged at 27mmt (21mmt this year). Algeria buys 120tmt wheat, likely French origin (700tmt bought over the course of the previous week). Strong US weekly exports for corn of 993tmt (well above expectations), wheat exports of 301tmt and soybean sales of 1.045mmt were in line with market expectations. U