The last eight weeks has seen a great deal of change on all fronts; crops have progressed rapidly through the growth stages and harvest is starting to feel just around the corner. Likewise prices have also moved significantly since the end of April, providing some comfort to those whose crops have suffered from the recent dry weather. Old crop wheat prices have plateaued recently around £165/t for July, however with few farm stocks available and new crop wheat still weeks awa
Markets close mixed as weather/politics continue to shape direction and traders start to turn attention towards USDA stocks/acreage data, due for release Friday. Russia’s Ag Minister suggests the country could harvest ‘up to’ 100mmt of grain this harvest. Private analysts Sovencon’s latest report suggested 119.6mmt, so perhaps suggests further downgrades in production may be forthcoming. US weekly export sales disappointed, with 506tmt reported for corn and 462tmt for wheat.
Markets down sharply on the week as supportive USDA data was quickly overlooked as attention returned to politics/weather. USDA headlines: Russian wheat crop est. reduced by 3.5mmt to 68.5mmt, below market expectations (85mmt this season). Decline is believed to be based on a reduction in area due to poor spring planting weather. Leaves potential for deeper cuts if yields deemed to be below average. Ukrainian wheat production left unchanged at 26.5mmt in spite of the recent d
Markets mixed this week as Black Sea/US weather continue to occupy much of the trade focus. Private forecaster’s cut Russian wheat crop estimates. Sovecon est. down 3.9mmt to 73.1mmt. IKAR est. down 2mmt to 71.5mmt. Russian Grain Union place production at 68- 69mmt. If correct, would amount to a 21% decline on this season’s 85mmt produced. Ukrainian winter wheat yields estimated down 15-30% according to the state hydro meteorological centre as a result of prolonged dry weathe
Spring drilling has finally been completed, with all but the heaviest ground now in crop. It remains to be seen how these late-drilled spring cereal crops fare (especially those planted into less than ideal seed beds); if the weather is sympathetic, they should be pretty reasonable – but that is a fairly significant ‘If’! The increasingly tight supply of old crop wheat is beginning to be reflected in values, with June’18 wheat worth anywhere between £162-£164/t. Over the last
Markets ease this week as US fund liquidation drives selling. Renewed concerns around US/China trade talks, improved US weather outlook and month end trading, all act as catalysts. US corn conditions reported at a 5 year high of 79% g/e for this time of year, surprising the trade and triggering a sell-off. EU Commission lower their 2018 wheat crop estimate by 1.2mmt to 140.3mmt. Exports left unchanged at 27mmt (21mmt this year). Algeria buys 120tmt wheat, likely French origin