Market Report 26th July 2019
Markets edge lower as Global harvest pressure weighs.
Sovecon reduce Russian wheat crop to 73.7mmt, down 2.9mmt on their previous forecast.
Russian exports estimate for next season reduced by 6.2mmt to 31.4mmt (July USDA 34.5mmt).
Soufflet estimate French wheat crop at 38-39mmt, whilst French Gov estimates 37mmt - Strategie Grains suggest 38.2mmt.
US funds estimated net long 144k (corn), short -43k (soybeans) and -15k ch+ks wheat).
US weekly export sales (old +new crop): 508k (corn), 660k (wheat). Corn sales will need to improve to reach current USDA targets.
Sterling continues to fall as No Deal Brexit rhetoric grows - strengthening London wheat. Pound has lost 7% of its value against the dollar since May.
Some suggestion from the US that ethanol plants may considering slowdowns or shutdowns as a result of poor margins.
Dry US Corn Belt conditions cause for concern with little rain relief anticipated this week. Parts of Iowa and Illinois in particular will be closely monitered given low soil moisture.
European harvest progressing well. French wheat harvest circa 63% complete, German circa 70%. Quality reports have been good.
Record high temps across parts of the EU may have been too late to impact wheat crops, corn crops however are suspected to have been affected.
Ukraine wheat harvest est. 76% complete. Quality across much of the Black Sea reported to be good.
Little change to the bigger picture as the trade continues to weather watch. Wheat supply domestically and globally is forecast to be abundant - providing little buying incentive. Uncertainty around US corn remains supportive to wheat, with all eyes likely on USDA's Aug 12th report for better clarity on this.
UK wise, harvest pressure will continue to restrict upside, whilst Brexit/Sterling will continue to trade as a fundamental to daily direction.
Expect further volatility as US Corn Belt weather in partiular continues to draw the focus ahead of USDA