Market Report 29th March 2019

The latest data release from USDA came out late on Friday with a surprisingly large corn stocks number triggering a heavy sell-off for the last session of the week. Corn finished the day 17.5 cents/bushel down on the day.

• Wheat got pulled lower Friday mostly along with corn however the report was not as bearish for wheat with stocks slightly larger than expected but projected planted area 1.2 mln acres lower.

• SovEcon reduced their estimate of old crop Russian wheat exports to 35.1 from 35.9 mmt. Shipping has slowed and in- Russia observers don’t think it will revive until new crop supplies start to move.

• The reported managed money positions saw Corn reduce slightly from a record short position (-203 K ctrs v. -262 K ctrs previous week). The wheat short was also seen as reduced (-63.7 v. 73.5 week previous)

• GASC / Egypt tender on Tuesday saw EU/FSU missing out (indicating EU, in particular, need to be more aggressive on the next round)

WEATHER/CROP DEVELOPMENT

• Nothing seen as too significant at this stage as new crop weather comes into focus. Parts of Western Europe are dry, Ukraine will need better rain by mid-April and recent rains in the western half of the North Africa wheat belt probably came too late to help Morocco’s crop very much.

• In the US some key SRW areas are too wet, but the market does not perceive a significant problem anywhere and US HRW area looks good.

BOTTOM LINE:

• Weather and crop ratings will become the focus as we enter Spring/Summer and attention turns to new crop development.

• The USDA corn stock numbers have surprised the market and would seemingly reflect either a higher harvest production number or a lower feeding use than was previously assumed. The US / China trade deal now becomes more pivotal in light of these new numbers.

• UK markets will continue to be swayed by politics, Brexit and currency.