Market Report 12th Jan 2018
Markets close the week lower following the release of somewhat bearish wheat/corn data from USDA.
US winter wheat plantings placed at 32.61m/a, significantly higher than the average trade estimate of 31.3m/a.
US wheat ending stocks increased 790,000t to 26.92mmt (trade est. 26.1mmt).
Decrease to Global wheat beginning stocks largely mitigated by production increases in Russia/Pakistan. Leaves Global ending stocks down 400,000t on before at 268.02mmt.
EU wheat exports reduced 1.5mmt to 27mmt (trade expect further reductions will be required). Australian exports also reduced 1.5mmt, with Russian exports increased 1.5mmt to 35mmt.
US corn yield increased from 175.4b/a to 176.6b/a. Corn ending stocks raised 1.01mmt to 62.93mmt (trade est. 61.75).
Global corn ending stocks increased 2.49mmt to 206.57mmt (trade est. 202.8mmt).
US HRW areas expected to be dry according to 7-10 day forecasts, with temperatures moderating.
North Brazil receives beneficial showers (still lower than normal levels for this time of year).
Above normal temperatures in parts of Argentina this week, with scattered showers expected in key growing areas.
Cold weather expected in parts of Russia, though nothing severe forecast.
BOTTOM LINE: USDA data released on Friday did little to alter the current sentiment, with a larger US wheat acreage and ending stocks figure than expected by the many in the trade sparking markets to sell-off late in the session. The presence of the large US fund shorts in wheat/corn should continue provide some underlying support, though equally, at present there appear few old or new crop supply issues to stimulate a sustained rally beyond current levels. US markets re-open Tuesday following Martin Luther King Day today - expect weather/currency led trade with the focus increasingly towards spring plantings.