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Market Review 3rd Nov 2017


US wheat reaches new contract lows before consolidating somewhat, whilst UK/EU markets continue to be currency led.

 Private Analysts FcStone and Informa release new US corn crop estimates, suggesting 173.7b/a and 173.4b/a respectively. This is relative to USDA’s October estimate of 171.8b/a.  Iraq buys 450k US HRW late last week, (now 600k in sales to date from the US).  Russian Ag Ministry report their wheat harvest at 87.9mmt, versus 75.8mmt in 2016 (up 16%). Wheat exports of 12.3mmt by the end of October up 21% on the pace of the previous year.  Russian Ministry also announces plans to wave rail charges for 3.2mmt of grain from certain areas in November, to help support exports from these more remote regions.  Interest rate announcement by BOE midweek pressures Sterling 2% lower, firming London wheat somewhat.  Weaker Euro and firming Russian prices recently have helped support Matif to an extent – though EU wheat exports continue to be down circa 23% y/oy.  US funds estimates net short -227.5k corn, -124k wheat.

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