Market Review 3rd Nov 2017
US wheat reaches new contract lows before consolidating somewhat, whilst UK/EU markets continue to be currency led.
Private Analysts FcStone and Informa release new US corn crop estimates, suggesting 173.7b/a and 173.4b/a respectively. This is relative to USDA’s October estimate of 171.8b/a. Iraq buys 450k US HRW late last week, (now 600k in sales to date from the US). Russian Ag Ministry report their wheat harvest at 87.9mmt, versus 75.8mmt in 2016 (up 16%). Wheat exports of 12.3mmt by the end of October up 21% on the pace of the previous year. Russian Ministry also announces plans to wave rail charges for 3.2mmt of grain from certain areas in November, to help support exports from these more remote regions. Interest rate announcement by BOE midweek pressures Sterling 2% lower, firming London wheat somewhat. Weaker Euro and firming Russian prices recently have helped support Matif to an extent – though EU wheat exports continue to be down circa 23% y/oy. US funds estimates net short -227.5k corn, -124k wheat.
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