Market Report 12th April 2019

April 16, 2019

Markets continue to trade recent ranges with USDA S&D data largely as expected.

  • World corn ending stocks raised 5.5mmt to 314mmt, above trade estimates. World production also increased 6mmt – mostly due to increases in South America.

  • World wheat ending stocks also raised 5mmt to 275.61mmt, 4mmt above trade estimates.

  • Sovecon increase Russian wheat crop estimate for 2019 to 83.4mmt, up from 80mmt previously.

  • UK customs data shows over 1.9mmt maize imported to the end of February this year. 2mmt imported over the whole of last season.

  • US funds estimated net short -290k (corn), -70k (soybeans), -105k (ch + ks wheat).

  • US weekly export sales: 548k (corn), 273k (wheat). Well under levels needed to reach USDA targets.

  • Egypt’s GASC buys four cargoes of wheat (Romanian/Ukrainian Origin). US offer not competitive. 6.55mmt bought so far this season, compared to 6.88mmt in total last season.

  • Algeria also reportedly buys 330tmt wheat, EU origin for June shipment.

  • CONAB estimate Brazilian corn at 94mmt, up from 92.8mmt previously. Increase down to larger expected area. Some trade ideas range from 95-100mmt this season with growing conditions excellent. (USDA 96mmt).

WEATHER/CROP DEVELOPMENT

  • US HRW areas hit with colder than normal conditions for this time of year. Wet conditions for the SRW area remains problematic.

  • UK winter crops widely reported to be in excellent condition with spring plantings largely completed on time and in good order.

  • EU/FSU crop conditions remain benign according to local reports – prompting suggestions of a large rebound in production next season.

BOTTOM LINE:

  • Markets continue to trade within recent ranges absent fresh fundamental news.

  • US markets largely focused on spring weather as well as political developments re. the China trade negotiations. Presence of the large accumulated US fund short supportive - though trade perception that old crop wheat supply is ample, acting to curtail upside.

  • UK/EU markets appear centred around old crop wheat trading dynamics as well as the impact of political/currency developments. Fundamentally the EU grain outlook is little changed.

  • Typically April is seen to be too earlier for significant weather events, though the US situation will be monitored closely. In short, failing key political movement re. US/China/Brexit – expect more sideways trade in the interim to summer.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

 

 

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